Accountant Wins $128K Betting Against Elon Musk’s DOGE

International tax accountant Alan Cole won a $128,000 profit on prediction market Kalshi on February 20, 2025, after wagering his $342,000 life savings that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) would fail to slash U.S. federal spending within a year.

Why the Tax Expert Knew DOGE Would Fail

As an international tax accountant, Cole possessed a deep understanding of the rigid complexities governing the United States budget. He recognized that rapidly slashing federal spending was an unrealistic goal, as he later explained in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. While the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency did eliminate certain federal contracts and lay off government employees, Cole knew these cuts would ultimately be eclipsed by skyrocketing national debt and massive, unavoidable mandatory spending obligations.

The High-Stakes $342,000 Kalshi Bet

When enthusiastic supporters of Elon Musk began driving up the price of a Kalshi prediction market contract—gambling that DOGE would successfully shrink federal outlays within twelve months—Cole saw a massive opportunity to bet against the hype. Taking the opposing side, he wagered his entire life savings of over $342,000. Over time, Cole systematically acquired a 3% stake in a Kalshi market that eventually swelled to $12 million, executing a few strategic hedging maneuvers along the way to manage his risk profile.

The Big Payoff: Tracking the Federal Budget

The high-stakes gamble officially paid off when the U.S. government released its official 2025 year-end spending report. The data confirmed Cole’s thesis, showing that federal outlays had actually increased compared to fiscal year 2024. With the prediction market resolved in his favor, Cole cashed out with a total of $470,300, securing a net profit of $128,000.