AI Shopping to Explode 520% This Holiday Season: Adobe

Adobe Analytics projects that U.S. online holiday sales will reach a record $253.4 billion this year—a 5.3% year-over-year increase—driven by massive consumer demand for steep discounts and generative AI shopping tools.

How Adobe Tracks E-Commerce Trends

To formulate these projections, Adobe Analytics evaluated more than 1 trillion visits to e-commerce platforms across the United States. This extensive dataset tracks 100 million unique SKUs spanning 18 distinct product categories. Because Adobe’s proprietary analytics software is utilized by a vast majority of the top 100 digital retailers in the country, the company maintains unparalleled visibility into real-time transactional data and evolving consumer shopping behaviors.

Cyber Monday and Black Friday to Lead the Surge

Major shopping holidays are poised to break previous records. Cyber Monday will maintain its status as the most lucrative digital shopping day of the year, climbing 6.3% year-over-year to generate $14.2 billion. Black Friday is projected to experience even faster growth, rising 8.3% compared to last year to reach $11.7 billion. Additionally, early promotions will drive Thanksgiving Day online sales up 4.9% year-over-year, bringing in $6.4 billion as retailers launch discounts ahead of the weekend.

Deep discounts remain the primary catalyst for these record-breaking numbers. Retailers are expected to slash prices by up to 28% off listed rates. Alongside these price cuts, the widespread adoption of mobile commerce, artificial intelligence, and flexible payment methods will heavily influence purchasing decisions.

The Generative AI and Mobile Commerce Boom

Generative AI is set to play a transformative role in the retail landscape this season. Adobe forecasts a massive 520% year-over-year surge in AI-driven referral traffic to online stores, with activity expected to peak during the 10-day window leading up to Thanksgiving. This exponential rise follows an already staggering 1,300% increase in AI-referred retail traffic recorded in 2024.

How Consumers Plan to Use AI

According to an Adobe survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, shoppers are primarily leveraging artificial intelligence for pre-purchase research. Specifically, 53% of respondents indicated they plan to use AI tools to guide their buying decisions. Furthermore, 40% of shoppers will use AI for product recommendations, 36% to hunt for the best deals, and 30% to find gift inspiration. This technology will see the highest adoption rates among consumers purchasing toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care products.

Mobile Shopping Outpaces Desktops

Mobile devices are continuing their dominance over traditional desktop computers, capturing a projected record share of 56.1% of all online transactions. Last year, mobile commerce claimed 54.5% of holiday sales, up from 51.1% in 2023. This steady upward trajectory shows no signs of slowing down, bolstered by larger smartphone screens that significantly streamline the mobile checkout experience.

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Buy Now, Pay Later and Social Media Drive Growth

Flexible payment options will experience heightened demand as Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services are projected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending. This represents an 11% year-over-year increase, adding roughly $2 billion more to retail top lines than the previous year. Cyber Monday is also set to mark a major milestone for BNPL, with single-day usage expected to hit $1.04 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year.

Concurrently, social media advertising is emerging as a powerful revenue generator. Social media campaigns are projected to fuel a 51% year-over-year increase in online revenue, a massive leap compared to the modest 5% growth observed in 2024.

Where Consumers Are Spending Their Money

Consumer spending will remain highly concentrated across key retail sectors. Electronics lead the forecast with an estimated $57.5 billion in sales, representing a 4% year-over-year increase. The apparel sector follows closely, projected to reach $47.6 billion (up 4.4% YoY), while home furniture sales are expected to grow by 6.5% to hit $31.1 billion.